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Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
Editor: Ali M. Kutan, Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville (akutan@siue.edu)
Associate Editor: Sumon Kumar Bhaumik, Aston Business School, Aston University
Associate Editor: Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley
Associate Editor: Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, University of Houston
Associate Editor: Frederic S. Mishkin, Columbia University
Associate Editor: Arvind Panagariya, Columbia University
Associate Editor: Carmen M. Reinhart, University of Maryland
Associate Editor: Dani Rodrik, Harvard University
Associate Editor: Serdar Sayan, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Ankara, Turkey
Associate Editor: Sergio Schmukler, The World Bank

Now published in association with the Society for the Study of Emerging Markets

The journal's page count is being expanded by 30-50 percent in 2010.

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade publishes research papers on financial and economic aspects of emerging economies. The journal features contributions that are policy oriented and interdisciplinary, employing sound econometric methods, using macro, micro, financial, institutional, and political economy data. Geographical coverage includes emerging market economies of Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Additionally, the journal will publish thematic issues and occasional special issues featuring selected research papers from major conferences worldwide.

The Society for the Study of Emerging Markets was founded to promote research and publication about emerging market economies and to provide a way for academics, policy makers, and members of the business community to exchange views and share information and research about emerging markets. The Society sponsors the journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, which is recognized worldwide for the quality and timeliness of the research on emerging markets that it publishes. The Society also cooperates with its regional affiliates and allied organizations in other countries to promote its objectives, and holds international meetings and conferences that are devoted to issues relevant to emerging markets, many organized in cooperation with leading universities and research institutions as well as with regional partners. Membership in the Society is open to all individuals who share its objectives. For information about membership in the Society and member benefits, please contact robbie.brada@cox.net.

"Emerging Markets Finance and Trade is a venerable journal that has been re-energized. It focuses on the issues that are most important to emerging markets -- trade and trade policy and financial markets and flows. Under its new editors it will surely be an important forum for research and policy discussion in these areas." -Paul Wachtel, Stern School of Business, New York University

"Emerging Markets Finance and Trade is the most comprehensive journal in its coverage of different regions of the developing world. The articles are mostly policy-oriented, yet they utilize the most recent advances in economic theory and econometrics. The journal broadens our understanding of trade issues and financial developments in developing countries." -Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

"An important group of developing economies have begun to 'emerge' in recent years, on the back of strong growth performances driven by a more business oriented economic, financial and institutional environment. The journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade is essential reading for students of these economies, with leading edge papers on the central topics of relevance to the performance of such countries. With a focus on financial markets and international trade in emerging markets, and a large selection of empirical and applied papers specifically focused to emerging markets, the journal fills a very important space for researchers in finance, trade, and development economics." -Saul Estrin, Centre for New and Emerging Markets, London Business School

"The analysis of the economic challenges faced by emerging markets has increasingly been attracting attention in the economic profession. This journal provides an important forum for high-quality research on these issues." -Carmen M. Reinhart, University of Maryland

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade is now available in the JSTOR archive as part of the Business III Collection.

Abstracting and Indexing: The articles in this journal are indexed/abstracted in Current Contents/Social and Behavioral Sciences; EconLit, e-JEL, and JEL on CD; Journal Citation Reports/Social Sciences Edition; PAIS International; ProQuest ABI/INFORM Database; RePEc; Scopus, Social Sciences Citation Index; Social Scisearch.

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ISSN:	Current volume:	Frequency Per Year:
1540-496X	Vol. 46 (Jan/Feb 2010 - Nov/Dec 2010)	6

U.S. Individual Subscription Rate: $149.00
U.S. Institutional Subscription Rate: $1284.00
Foreign Individual Subscription Rate: $221.00
Foreign Institutional Subscription Rate: $1404.00

Editorial Board Editorial Board Members: Cem Akyurek, Global Securities, Istanbul; Kathryn M.E. Dominguez, University of Michigan; Saul Estrin, London School of Economics; Jarko Fidrmuc, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich; Hung Gay Fung, University of Missouri-St. Louis; Allaudeen Hameed, National University of Singapore; Shawkat Hammoudeh, Drexel University; Yelena Kalyuzhnova, University of Reading; W.K. Leung, Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chia-Ying Ma, Soochow University, Taiwan; Klaus Meyer, University of Bath; Lucjan Orlowski, Sacred Heart University; Vladimir Tomsik, Czech National Bank; K.C. John Wei, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Jian Yang, University of Colorado Denver; Taner Yigit, Bilkent University (Ankara)

Table of Contents
May-June 2010
Vol. 46 No. 03

Editor's Introduction

ALI M. KUTAN	3
Trade Liberalization and Import Margins

RICHARD FRENSCH	4
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Output in Oil-Producing Countries
The Case of Iran
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE AND MAGDA KANDIL	23
Exchange Rate and Political Risks, Again

GREGORY CLARE AND IRA N. GANG	46
The Destination of Outward FDI and the Performance of South Korean Multinationals

HONGSHIK LEE	59
Predicting Financial Distress Based on the Credit Cycle Index
A Two-Stage Empirical Analysis
BI-HUEI TSAI AND CHIH-HUEI CHANG	67
Do Leverage, Dividend Payout, and Ownership Concentration Influence Firms' Value Creation?
An Analysis of Brazilian Firms
FÉLIX J. LÓPEZ ITURRIAGA AND VICENTE LIMA CRISÓSTOMO	80
Financial Convergence in Transition Economies
EU Enlargement
JOSÉ LUIS GALLIZO, RAMON SALADRIGUES, AND MANUEL SALVADOR	95

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